Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AVAX prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-20 0.008004 0.009029 0.010151 0.011473 0.012993 0.014689 0.016729
2024-10-27 0.006200 0.007539 0.009135 0.011188 0.013775 0.016949 0.021170
2024-11-03 0.005335 0.006816 0.008682 0.011228 0.014647 0.019127 0.025523
2024-11-10 0.004887 0.006503 0.008637 0.011695 0.016029 0.022041 0.031173
2024-11-17 0.004335 0.005961 0.008191 0.011522 0.016456 0.023637 0.035135
2024-11-24 0.003958 0.005606 0.007944 0.011566 0.017157 0.025661 0.039970
2024-12-01 0.003570 0.005187 0.007548 0.011327 0.017374 0.026938 0.043758
2024-12-08 0.003360 0.005004 0.007475 0.011558 0.018327 0.029462 0.049943
2024-12-15 0.003121 0.004751 0.007265 0.011538 0.018856 0.031330 0.055238
2024-12-22 0.002809 0.004357 0.006794 0.011036 0.018504 0.031628 0.057689
2024-12-29 0.002625 0.004148 0.006600 0.010976 0.018901 0.033282 0.062928
2025-01-05 0.002581 0.004163 0.006774 0.011562 0.020513 0.037347 0.073549
2025-01-12 0.002354 0.003862 0.006398 0.011155 0.020279 0.037953 0.077324
2025-01-19 0.002171 0.003621 0.006109 0.010880 0.020274 0.039026 0.082328
2025-01-26 0.002056 0.003488 0.005996 0.010919 0.020882 0.041407 0.090657
2025-02-02 0.002011 0.003475 0.006095 0.011372 0.022375 0.045844 0.104603
2025-02-09 0.001884 0.003304 0.005890 0.011203 0.022552 0.047446 0.111965
2025-02-16 0.001796 0.003198 0.005796 0.011246 0.023182 0.050145 0.122618
2025-02-23 0.001683 0.003035 0.005579 0.011015 0.023178 0.051364 0.129588
2025-03-02 0.001631 0.002985 0.005579 0.011238 0.024223 0.055225 0.144579
2025-03-09 0.001557 0.002885 0.005472 0.011219 0.024704 0.057772 0.156371
2025-03-16 0.001439 0.002694 0.005165 0.010733 0.024022 0.057281 0.159083
2025-03-23 0.001373 0.002601 0.005054 0.010675 0.024371 0.059517 0.170620